Barbara Walter, delivering the final Elizabeth H.L. Bonkowsky Memorial Lecture, stressed that citizens and businesses must take immediate action to steer the U.S. away from authoritarianism
American democracy is at a precipice.
That was the solemn but urgent message given by Barbara Walter — a political scientist, New York Times-bestselling author and professor at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS) — in a Nov. 12 lecture aptly titled “Warning Signs from the Edges of Democracy.”
Walter’s lecture was the third and final talk given as part of the Elizabeth H.L. Bonkowsky Memorial Lecture Series, established at GPS by the Bonkowsky family. Over the course of three years, the series has promoted public understanding and advocacy of democratic and human rights work across the globe. The talks are given in honor of Bonkowsky and her work as a diplomat at the U.S. State Department, where she championed the statehood and independence of democratic Kosovo. She also helped to increase democracy and human rights work in Serbia, Bosnia and Croatia and in former communist East Germany.
“It’s a strange thing that I’ve spent my career studying war, because really, all I’ve ever cared about is peace,” Walter began. “But you can’t understand how to bring peace if you don’t first understand war.”
A second civil war in America is no longer a hypothetical doomsday scenario, she said, but one that is becoming increasingly tenable in a hyper-polarized political climate. Walter shared that her fear doesn’t come out of speculation but is grounded in data.
Democracy’s twilight zone
Democracies are in decline worldwide, she explained, and authoritarianism is gaining ground. But there is a gradient between the two systems, and the intermediary step is known as anocracy: a government that still functions democratically, but where elections are tilted to favor an increasingly powerful leader.
Researchers have rated countries’ political systems on a scale of -10 to 10, where -10 indicates a completely authoritarian government and 10 represents a thriving, functioning democracy.
Since 2016, the U.S. has slipped down from its former stature of a 10, and after President Donald Trump refused to concede his election loss in 2020, it sunk to a 5.
Walter said anocracies provide a “time of reckoning” in which citizens decide the direction they want to head in. There is some hope for America’s situation, however scant.
The most opportune time to turn those numbers around, Walter said, was during President Joe Biden’s first two years in office, when the Democratic Party also controlled both houses of Congress — but no legislation ended up being passed to safeguard America’s democratic norms.
Walter said there are indications that 2025’s score will be between 1 and 3 — right in the zone of anocracy. This new, even more dire rating, she said, is derived from the sheer speed in which the president has consolidated his power during his second term, no less than by the wide range of measures he has taken to do so.
And she emphasized that there is no way to sugarcoat the situation: Countries that backslide into anocracies are very likely to degrade further into autocracies.
Some reason for hope
But even though the odds are difficult, she said anocracies provide a “time of reckoning” in which citizens decide the direction they want to head in. There is some hope for America’s situation, however scant.
Walter pointed to the examples of Brazil and South Korea, both of which have fended off attempts by their leaders to crumble their democracies.
In the case of Brazil, Walter emphasized the role that business leaders played in fending off authoritarianism: When Jair Bolsonaro began questioning the validity of his election loss, executives took out ads on television urging citizens to oppose the incursion. Similar tactics could have a major impact in the U.S. as well.
Walter emphasized the role that business leaders played in fending off authoritarianism in Brazil. Similar tactics could have a major impact in the U.S. as well.
Research has also found that everyday people can help restore the country’s democracy. If only 3.5% of Americans — around 12 million people — consistently protest against the administration, there is a higher likelihood that Trump will either back off or relinquish power.
And though the number of federal government employees has dwindled, she said civil servants must remain vigilant and push back against unlawful orders.
“Hope can lead to being passive and compliant,” Walter said at the talk’s conclusion. “We don’t have time to be hopeful that five years from now, 10 years from now, things will be better.”
And yet, even as she advocated the intense urgency of the situation, Walter couldn’t help but provide some optimism for the country.
“I know this about America: We are fighters,” she said. “Even if we don’t yet realize that some people in this country are trying to take away our rights and freedoms — once we do, I cannot imagine us rolling over.”
On desktop, hover your cursor over the image below to browse all photos from the event.
