Shinnosuke Kikuchi’s current research examines the policy implications of the rise of technological disruptions to the labor force
“Polarization” is a term that most people would rather avoid thinking about these days. But Shinnosuke Kikuchi, one of the newest faculty members at UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS), finds the topic irresistible.
One strand of his research focuses on how political polarization — the kind that’s most familiar to people — comes about, including how it’s tied to income inequality across societies. But he is also interested in divisions that occur on a global scale, where the haves and have-nots are not people, but entire countries.
Research with policy impact
After graduating with a bachelor’s degree in economics from the University of Tokyo, Shinnosuke Kikuchi sought a job in the private sector and landed at McKinsey & Company, where he advised government and business leaders. Afterward, he became a go-to source for government leaders looking to understand how globalization and technology could impact their policies, especially when it came to economics.
This burgeoning interest led him to complete a master’s degree, also in Tokyo, and ultimately to the U.S., where he pursued a doctorate in economics at MIT. Now, he joins UC San Diego’s School of Global Policy and Strategy (GPS) as an assistant professor.
Kikuchi’s research lies at the intersection of economics and political science, and he is particularly interested in studying the interplay of globalization, technology and economic inequality — a perfect fit for GPS, whose faculty and research are uniquely focused on all three of these fields.
At GPS, his work promises to have an even farther-reaching impact on policy decisions in his native Japan, the U.S. and beyond.
Automating the factory floor
One area that Kikuchi is exploring is the ways in which technological advancements, particularly the increasing automation in factories, have changed the fortunes of rich and poor countries.
For centuries, countries with many workers were the backbone of manufacturing: the number of people available to work was high, and the cost to pay them was low. This has been a key driver for East Asian countries to export manufacturing goods, grow rapidly, and catch up with Western countries.
However, things began to change as automation technology became more sophisticated and the number of humans involved in making things plummeted. This development was great for countries like Japan and Korea, which had incentives to invest in robotic technologies early on; automation made it so that the price of manufacturing at home shrank even more.
Kikuchi’s research was the first to quantitatively demonstrate that, for Japan, at least, robots were not eating into the country’s human labor force — just shifting the labor force into less automated jobs.
They also benefited from automation just as their populations’ average age was beginning to climb, with fewer people in the workforce. In fact, Kikuchi’s research was the first to quantitatively demonstrate that, for Japan, at least, robots were not eating into the country’s human labor force — just shifting the labor force into less automated jobs.
“Because there’s a labor shortage, we actually need robots,” he said.
The same could not be said of other countries, like how American companies’ profits benefited from automating their production processes. However, the U.S. population was slightly younger than in East Asia, meaning that robots were taking the jobs of people.
Preparing for AI
Despite the challenges that automation has helped usher in, Kikuchi said that Western countries can’t afford to remain skeptical of technological developments. Japan’s situation offers a preview of what lies in store when their own populations begin to age and their labor force shrinks.
This becomes all the more urgent as artificial intelligence is poised to fundamentally shift how entry-level and white-collar workers do their jobs, or whether they even have jobs at all.
Based on his research, Kikuchi has some predictions about where things are heading: The same countries that had a head start on factory automation will similarly continue to stay ahead. China, the U.S. and others already have the technological infrastructure needed to harness AI, he said. In addition, they have the capacity to invest in that even more, stemming from the massive inflows of capital they had from the automation boom.
“It’s not as simple as saying, ‘AI is good for society.’ Maybe it is at the aggregate level, but how does it affect low-income people or people with a particular skill set? How does it affect countries differently?”
Shinnosuke Kikuchi, assistant professor at the School of Global Policy and Strategy
“It’s not as simple as saying, ‘AI is good for society,’” Kikuchi said. “Maybe it is at the aggregate level, but how does it affect low-income people or people with a particular skill set? How does it affect countries differently?”
These complex questions will take time to solve, but he says he is looking forward to continuing his work at the school.
“I think only GPS can provide that kind of mix of political science and economics at a really high level,” he said.
In addition to finding a new academic home at UC San Diego, Kikuchi said that the change of scenery will also allow him to pursue his favorite out-of-classroom hobby.
“I’ve been playing volleyball for 20 years, and I’m definitely going to keep at it,” he said. “But beach volleyball is new to me, and San Diego is the best place to play outdoors.”
